Application of wastewater-based surveillance and copula time-series model for COVID-19 forecasts.

The objective of this study was to develop a novel copula-based time series (CTS) model to forecast COVID-19 cases and trends based on wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load and clinical variables. Wastewater samples were collected from wastewater pumping stations in five sewersheds in the City of Chesapeake VA. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load was measured using reverse transcription droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR). The clinical dataset included daily COVID-19 reported cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The CTS model development included two steps: an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for time series analysis (step I), and an integration of ARMA and a copula function for marginal regression analysis (step II). Poisson and negative binomial marginal probability densities for copula functions were used to determine the forecasting capacity of the CTS model for COVID-19 forecasts in the same geographical area. The dynamic trends predicted by the CTS model were well suited to the trend of the reported cases as the forecasted cases from the CTS model fell within the 99 % confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS CoV-2 viral load served as a reliable predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases. The CTS model provided robust modeling to predict COVID-19 cases.

Peginterferon lambda for the treatment of hospitalized patients with mild COVID-19: A pilot phase 2 randomized placebo-controlled trial.

Background: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of subcutaneous injection of peginterferon lambda in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Methods: In this study (NCT04343976), patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR from nasopharyngeal swab were randomly assigned within 48 h to receive peginterferon lambda or placebo in a 1:1 ratio. Participants were subcutaneously injected with a peginterferon lambda or saline placebo at baseline and day 7 and were followed up until day 14. Results: We enrolled 14 participants; 6 participants (85.7%) in the peginterferon lambda group and 1 participant (14.3%) in the placebo group were treated with remdesivir prior to enrollment. Fifty percent of participants were SARS-CoV-2 RNA negative at baseline although they tested SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive within 48 h of randomization. Among participants who were SARS-CoV-2 positive at baseline, 2 out of 5 participants (40%) in the peginterferon lambda group became negative at day 14, while 0 out of 2 participants (0%) in the placebo group achieved negativity for SARS-CoV-2 by day 14 (p > 0.05). The median change in viral load (log copies per ml) was +1.72 (IQR -2.78 to 3.19) in the placebo group and -2.22 (IQR -3.24 to 0.55) in the peginterferon lambda group at day 14 (p = 0.24). Symptomatic changes did not differ between the two groups. Peginterferon lambda was well tolerated with a few treatment-related adverse effects. Conclusion: Peginterferon lambda appears to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 viral load decline and improve plasma disease progression markers in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Sars-Cov-2 antigen tests predict infectivity based on viral culture: comparison of antigen, PCR viral load, and viral culture testing on a large sample cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To define the relationship of SARS-CoV-2 antigen, viral load determined by RT-qPCR, and viral culture detection. Presumptively, viral culture can provide a surrogate measure for infectivity of sampled individuals and thereby inform how and where to most appropriately deploy antigen and nucleic acid amplification-based diagnostic testing modalities. METHODS: We compared the antigen testing results from three lateral flow and one microfluidics assay to viral culture detection and viral load determination performed in parallel in up to 189 nasopharyngeal swab samples positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sample viral loads, determined by RT-qPCR, were distributed across the range of viral load values observed in our testing population. RESULTS: Antigen tests were predictive of viral culture positivity, with the LumiraDx microfluidics method showing enhanced sensitivity (90%; 95% CI 83-94%) compared with the BD Veritor (74%, 95% CI 65-81%), CareStart (74%, 95% CI 65-81%) and Oscar Corona (74%, 95% CI 65-82%) lateral flow antigen tests. Antigen and viral culture positivity were also highly correlated with sample viral load, with areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves of 0.94 to 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. A viral load threshold of 100 000 copies/mL was 95% sensitive (95% CI, 90-98%) and 72% specific (95% CI, 60-81%) for predicting viral culture positivity. Adjusting for sample dilution inherent in our study design, sensitivities of antigen tests were ≥95% for detection of viral culture positive samples with viral loads >106 genome copies/mL, although specificity of antigen testing was imperfect. DISCUSSION: Antigen testing results and viral culture were correlated. For culture positive samples, the sensitivity of antigen tests was high at high viral loads that are likely associated with significant infectivity. Therefore, our data provides support for use of antigen testing in ruling out infectivity at the time of sampling.

Association between SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load and Patient Symptoms and Clinical Outcomes Using Droplet Digital PCR.

The association between nasopharyngeal (NP) SARS-CoV-2 viral loads and clinical outcomes remains debated. Here, we examined the factors that might predict the NP viral load and the role of the viral load as a predictor of clinical outcomes. A convenience sample of 955 positive remnant NP swab eluent samples collected during routine care between 18 November 2020 and 26 September 2021 was cataloged and a chart review was performed. For non-duplicate samples with available demographic and clinical data (i.e., non-employees), an aliquot of eluent was sent for a droplet digital PCR quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the clinical predictors of NP viral loads and the predictors of COVID-19-related clinical outcomes. Samples and data from 698 individuals were included in the final analysis. The sample cohort had a mean age of 50 years (range: 19-91); 86.6% were male and 76.3% were unvaccinated. The NP viral load was higher in people with respiratory symptoms (p = 0.0004) and fevers (p = 0.0006). In the predictive models for the clinical outcomes, the NP viral load approached a significance as a predictor for in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, the NP viral load did not appear to be a strong predictor of moderate-to-severe disease in the pre-Delta and Delta phases of the pandemic, but was predictive of symptomatic diseases and approached a significance for in-hospital mortality, providing support to the thesis that early viral control prevents the progression of disease.

SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-qPCR using saliva in outpatients tested for COVID-19

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of people around the world. Part of control strategies is testing a large proportion of the population to identify and isolate the infected sub-jects. Aim(s): To evaluate the SARS-CoV-2 detection by the performance of a reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) against SARS-CoV-2, using saliva as a matrix compared to a nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) to simplify obtaining a diagnostic sample. Method(s): Adults in outpatient care were recruited, 95% of them symptomatic. We studied 530 paired saliva and NPS samples by SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR. Result(s): Fifty-nine individuals tested positive in NPS and 54 in saliva samples. Sensitivity for saliva sample was 91%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value (PPV) 100%, negative predictive value (NPV) 98%. The Kappa index was 0.95 and LR-0.08. On average, the cycle threshold (CT) of saliva was 3.99 points higher than those of NPS (p < 0.0001) showing that viral load (VL) is lower in saliva than in NPS. Viral load in both decreased over the time after onset of symptoms. Saliva sampling was preferred by subjects instead of NPS. Conclusion(s): This study demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR using saliva, even with lower VL, is suitable for the diagnosis of COVID-19 in outpatient adults, especially at early stage of symptoms. Copyright © 2022, Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia. All rights reserved.

Treatment with metformin glycinate reduces SARS-CoV-2 viral load: An in vitro model and randomized, double-blind, Phase IIb clinical trial.

The health crisis caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need to identify new treatment strategies for this viral infection. During the past year, over 400 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) treatment patents have been registered; nevertheless, the presence of new virus variants has triggered more severe disease presentations and reduced treatment effectiveness, highlighting the need for new treatment options for the COVID-19. This study evaluates the Metformin Glycinate (MG) effect on the SARS-CoV-2 in vitro and in vivo viral load. The in vitro study was conducted in a model of Vero E6 cells, while the in vivo study was an adaptive, two-armed, randomized, prospective, longitudinal, double-blind, multicentric, and phase IIb clinical trial. Our in vitro results revealed that MG effectively inhibits viral replication after 48 h of exposure to the drug, with no cytotoxic effect in doses up to 100 µM. The effect of the MG was also tested against three variants of interest (alpha, delta, and epsilon), showing increased survival rates in cells treated with MG. These results are aligned with our clinical data, which indicates that MG treatment reduces SARS-CoV2-infected patients´ viral load in just 3.3 days and supplementary oxygen requirements compared with the control group. We expect our results can guide efforts to position MG as a therapeutic option for COVID-19 patients.

Case report study of the first five COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir in France.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified as the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak worldwide. Data on treatment are scare and parallels have been made between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses. Remdesivir is a broad-spectrum antiviral with efficient in vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2. Evidence of clinical improvement in patients with severe COVID-19 treated with remdesivir is controversial. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical outcomes and virological monitoring of the first five COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit of Bichat-Claude Bernard University Hospital, Paris, France, for severe pneumonia related to SARS-CoV-2 and treated with remdesivir. Quantitative reverse transcription PCR was used to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in blood plasma and the lower and upper respiratory tract. Among the five patients treated, two needed mechanical ventilation and one needed high-flow cannula oxygen. A significant decrease in SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract was observed in most cases, but two patients died with active SARS-CoV-2 replication in the lower respiratory tract. Plasma samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 in only one patient. Remdesivir was interrupted before the initialy planned duration in four patients, two because of alanine aminotransferase elevations (3 to 5 normal range) and two because of renal failure requiring renal replacement. This case series of five COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care unit treatment for respiratory distress and treated with remdesivir, highlights the complexity of remdesivir use in such critically ill patients.